According to Edward Dowd, equity markets are indicating a rally right now. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025. He warns that cracks are beginning in credit due to a weak economy and says his team is forecasting a recession. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025; Edward Dowd on X, Oct 10, 2025. Dowd outlines two trading paths today: either the market is not ready to price fundamentals and can print new highs, or the rally fades in futures or into the cash close. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025. He adds that a red cash close would signal something else at work, likely liquidity and credit drying up from poor fundamentals, which is a key risk cue for high-beta assets. Source: Edward Dowd on X, Oct 12, 2025. Given the increased co-movement between crypto and U.S. equities in risk-off regimes, a fade or red close would skew near-term bias bearish for BTC and ETH, while a sustained breakout would support risk-on flows. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2022, Chapter on crypto assets and financial stability.